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The tumultuous changes of the past decade, including China’s economic rise and the financial meltdown, were just the beginning. The next cataclysmic wave is surging relentlessly ahead, demanding leaders who can steer their companies through complexity and change. Drawn from original research conducted jointly with foresight company Z-Punkt and further analyzed by Hay Group, Leadership 2030 uncovers six megatrends that will dramatically impact organizations’ markets, cultures, systems, and processes:
1. Globalization 2.0: Asia dominates the global economy.
2. Climate change: Sustainability becomes imperative.
3. Individualism: Freedom of choice erodes loyalty.
4. Digitization: Boundaries blur between private and working lives.
5. Demographic changes: Aging populations intensify the talent war.
6. Converging technologies: The sharpest tech shift in history is around the corner. Research findings and case studies provide compelling evidence of each megatrend and highlight the skills, capabilities, and attitudes leaders must cultivate, such as adaptability, collaboration, cultural sensitivity, strategic thinking, meaning creation, and more. In the rush to produce quarterly profits in chaotic conditions, the longer view is often obscured. This forward-thinking book helps businesses everywhere prepare for the seismic changes on the horizon.
- Sales Rank: #702424 in eBooks
- Published on: 2014-02-06
- Released on: 2014-01-06
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
“Leaders wondering if their three- and five- year plans (and beyond) are sustainable will find answers in this insightful read.” --T+D magazine
From the Back Cover
Massive global forces will reshape your business by the year 2030. Formidable competition from China, environmental pressures, talent wars, and technological leaps will divide the short-term thinkers from the prudent few looking for long-range opportunities. This book gives you a sophisticated futuring team of your own.
Drawn from research conducted by Hay Group, a global management consultancy, and Z_punkt, an international leader in strategic foresight analysis, Leadership 2030 pinpoints six converging megatrends, and provides direction for leading your organization through profound change:
1. Globalization 2.0: Asia is in economic ascent, with China and others adding vast numbers of middle-class consumers and excluding Western firms from intraregional trade. Strategic leaders will tap into these expanding markets—thinking and acting locally, forging alliances—and compete with powerful challengers.
2. Environmental crisis: Critical natural resources grow scarce and climate change more threatening. Creative leaders will balance rising costs with social imperatives to cut their carbon footprint.
3. Individualization and value pluralism: Customers and employees expect attention to their individual needs, dismissing the concept of loyalty. Attuned leaders will create opportunities for customized offerings and build enduring relationships with diverse employees.
4. The digital era: Young digital natives conflate working and personal lives and demand unpre�cedented transparency. Wise leaders will act with integrity—or jeopardize their reputations.
5. Demographic change: A rapidly aging population sparks full-scale battles for talent. Sensitive leaders will build multigenerational workplaces and man�age their competing demands.
6. Technological convergence: Nanotechnology and biotechnology merge, creating a massive wave of technological advances. Collaborative leaders will tap into new product markets and forge links with competitors to work on complex R&D programs.
These six megatrends should not be seen in isolation, but as an economic and social matrix impacting every organization—from multinationals trying to stay competitive as customers and capital shift East…to mid-sized companies trying to carve out sustainable niche markets…to tiny startups trying to attract talented people.
To guide their organizations through this massive change, leaders will need to shift from being egocentric to being altrocentric, with a wide range of competencies and a focus on the great diversity of employees and consumers that will be facing them.
Thought-provoking analyses assess the transformative effects of the megatrends on leaders and their organizations. Case studies, examples, interviews, and data drive home the evidence. Fictional profiles clarify the effects each megatrend has on decision-making processes. Together, they make Leadership 2030 your most sweeping, nuanced guide to the monumental challenges ahead.
Georg Vielmetter, Ph.D., is a member of Hay Group’s European Leadership Team and the regional director–Europe of Hay Group’s Leadership and Talent Practice. He works with executives and top teams on leadership transformation, and he also publishes and speaks on these topics. He is an alumnus of the German National Academic Foundation, and a member of the German Sociological Association as well as of the German Society for Philosophy.
Yvonne Sell, Ph.D., is the director of Leadership and Talent–UK & Ireland for Hay Group where, as part of driving the leadership and talent practice, she regularly provides press commentary and conference presentations on a wide range of leadership issues. She also works with Daniel Goleman and Richard Boyatzis on researching emotional intelligence. .
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Twenty years ago, the Internet was not yet commercialized. Desktop computers were the hot new tools. China was an isolated country that exported trinkets.
Today, connectivity to customers, suppliers, and workers scattered across the globe is ubiquitous. Economic troubles in one region lash the others. China is on the brink of overtaking the United States as the world’s largest economy.
And tomorrow? Are you ready to steer your organization through the next tumultuous era of complexity and change? Are you developing the skills, capabilities, and attitudes required of leaders in the decades ahead?
Leadership 2030 provides a detailed, wide-ranging picture of the most dramatic megatrends now reshaping organizations and impacting markets, cultures, systems, and processes. Informed by foresight analysis, case studies, original research, extensive conversations, and the leadership findings gathered by the international Hay Group, Leadership 2030 brings clarity to the global challenges ahead:
• Economic power is shifting to Asia, creating fearsome competition.
• Demographic pressures are escalating the war for talent.
• Deteriorating environmental conditions are putting financial stressors on organizations.
• Freedom of choice is eroding loyalty.
• Boundaries are blurring between private and working lives.
• Nanotechnology and biotechnology are merging, triggering the sharpest tech shift in history.
Leadership 2030 ties together the interlocking effects of each megatrend on the business environment, highlighting new strategies and new leadership skills required to survive. In the rush to produce quarterly profits in chaotic conditions, the longer view is often obscured. This expansive, forward-thinking book helps businesses everywhere prepare for the seismic changes taking shape on the horizon.
About the Author
GEORG VIELMETTER is regional director, Leadership and Talent–Europe, for Hay Group.
YVONNE SELL is director, Leadership and Talent–UK & Ireland, for Hay Group.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Valuable resource for any organisation's long-term planning
By John Gibbs
Change is in the air, but it is difficult to get a grip on exactly what is changing, how and why, and what the future will look like as a result, according to Georg Vielmetter and Yvonne Sell in this book. The book contains the authors’ best attempts to imagine the future based on key megatrends which they have identified in current global society.
The six megatrends described in the book are:
• Globalization 2.0, in which economic power is shifting from old economies to fast-developing Asian markets
• Environmental crisis, with critical resources becoming scarcer and climate change bringing a range of threats
• Individualization and value pluralism, which will create niche opportunities, but also require far greater sensitivity and agility
• Digitalization, which generates unprecedented transparency, requiring greater attention to reputation management
• Demographic change, which will bring a shrinking workforce and a war for talent as populations age
• Technological convergence, which will place huge demands on companies to stay ahead of the curve
The authors provide further ideas for consideration by outlining a number of ways in which the megatrends might reinforce each other, and a number of dilemmas which are predicted to create increasing decision-making difficulties for leaders of organizations.
There is plenty of room for debating the likely severity and effect of some of these trends. For example, resource scarcities frequently turn out to be less imminent and less severe than expected. Nonetheless it is much better to have thought through possible future scenarios than to be caught completely unawares when predictable events occur. The authors have undertaken extensive research in coming up with their predictions, and the book provides a valuable input for any organization’s long-term planning.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Foresight analysis: Valuable lessons to be learned from six megatrends and their possible/probable implications
By Robert Morris
I am in substantial debt to Georg Vielmetter and Yvonne Sell for sharing their thoughts about unprecedented disruptions that will continue to occur in what has become a global marketplace. They wrote this book in response to questions such as these: "Exactly what is changing? What are the implications for organizations and their leaders in the immediate and longer term? How will this affect the way that leaders lead? What will leadership look like by the year 2030?" They and their colleagues at the Hay Group set out to identify the main drivers of change. "How could we systematically analyze these drivers and their implications? What would be the right framework for such a study?"
The Leadership 2030 Research Process consisted of eight steps: Determine methodology and conceptual framework; identify current megatrends; select most impactful megatrends; survey business leaders; analyze each megatrend and the implications; analyze the effects of all megatrends in combination; draw conclusions on consequences for leaders; and identify how leaders should respond." The answers to the aforementioned questions are provided in this book.
Vielmetter and Sell focus on six megatrends in terms of time, reach, and impact:
1. Globalization 2.0 (Pages 13-32)
2. The Environmental Crisis (33-55)
3. Individualism and Value Pluralism (57-75)
4. The Digital Era (77-96)
5. Demographic Change (97-115)
6. Technological Convergence (117-137)
As the nine mini-case studies Vielmetter and Sell include correctly indicate, the nature and extent of a megatrend's significance -- potential implications and consequences -- can vary from one organization to the next. They also have a great deal to say about the unique leadership challenges that these megatrends pose. For example, with regard to technological convergence, "Scientific progress in fields such as nanotechnology and biotechnology will transform many areas of our lives, the great advances resulting from the combination of these technologies. This wave of innovation will create untold new product markets. It will also place huge demands on companies to stay ahead of the curve and to collaborate closely with competitors on complex R&D programs."
I commend Vielmetter and Sell on their skillful use if various reader-friendly devices during their examination of each megatrend, to which they devote a separate chapter. The devices include "Implications of [insert the given Megatrend]" and "The Demands of [ditto]" as well as "At a Glance" chapter introductions, "Five Questions That Business Leaders Should Ask," and dozens of mini-commentaries relevant to the given megatrend, or to some dimension or aspect thereof. These devices will facilitate, indeed expedite frequent review of key material later.
Obviously, no brief commentary such as mine can do full justice to the wealth of information, insights, and counsel that Georg Vielmetter and Yvonne Sell provide. However, I hope I have indicated why I think so highly of their book. At best, speculation about what will happen during the next 15-20 years can only suggest what is probable rather than certain. And even then, we are well-advised to keep in mind the Hebrew aphorism, "Man plans and then God laughs."
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Future business trends
By Books Reviewed
Leadership 2030
By Georg Vielmetter and Yvonne Sell
This book attempts to outline and analyse six megatrends that are shaping business and society now and in the immediate future. It examines what is changing between nations and attempts to analyse these into trends.
Vielmetter and Sell focus on six megatrends in terms of time, reach, and impact: Globalization 2.0; The Environmental Crisis; Individualism and Value Pluralism; The Digital Era; Demographic Change; and Technological Convergence.
The book also discusses the unique leadership challenges that these megatrends pose. There will be debate around whether their predictions will come to pass.
The book is a dry read that took me many attempts to complete enough to review. It is not your usual leadership text, but rather a text for the analysis’s businesses employ to help shape company direction. For these selected few it will provide input for an businesses medium to long term planning. Not one for the average person.
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